After diving into the world of golf tees with my last blog entry and discovering that there are more than 180 different kinds of tees available to the average consumer, I was left wondering just who it is that actually buys all these tees and how there can possibly be a big eneough market to support all of these variations of what seems like such a simple product.

To answer these questions, I have used the logic-based market sizing method described in the Coyote Blog and discussed by Ken in his post about demand assessment criteria to create a model for estimating the size of the market for golf tees.

This system follows three distinct steps: define the equation in english, plug in some numbers based on estimates, and then seek sources for better data to back up or replace your estimates.

Using the golf tee example, begin by defining the annual canadian market for wooden golf tees as being equal to the number of tees used per round multiplied by the number of rounds played by canadian golfers each year. To get to this result, you can use the following formula:

Canadian Population x Percentage of Canadians that Golf x Percentage of Canadian Golfers that Use Wooden Tees x Average Number of Wooden Tees Used Per 18 Hole Round x Average Number of 18 Hole Rounds Per Year

Now that the model has been established, its time to plug in some estimated numbers and begin working towards the final goal of calculating the actual market size.

The Canadian population can be estimated at around 32 million people and I will say that 10% of Canadians play golf at least once each year. Of these, I would estimate that 95% use wooden tees and based on my personal experiences I would estimate that people generally use 4 tees per 18 hole round of golf. Finally, I will estimate that the average Canadian golfer plays 3 rounds of golf each year.

Using these estimates, the model produces a market size of 36,480,000 wooden golf tees in Canada each year.

Obviously these numbers aren't exact, but that is how the method works. The next step would be to research each component of the calculation and replace the estimates with actual values, but that will have to wait for another day.

When it comes to buying golf tees, I'm generally a last minute kind of guy. On more than one occasion I can remember reaching into the tee pocket of my golf bag on the first hole only to find it empty. This has never been a problem though because a quick trip back into the pro shop has always provided me with everything I need; a little clear bag of plain white tees that will last me for the next few games.

Because of my relatively simple shopping habits, I was totally amazed when I recently wandered into the Golf Town on King St. in downtown Toronto and was faced by an entire wall of different shapes, sizes, and colours of golf tees. Something that had always seemed so straightforward to me just got complicated.

I left the store wondering just how many different tees were available to the average consumer and wrote to the Golf Town buying department to find out. One of their employees was kind enough to reply.

I currently have 184 different skus for tees that we stock. Of these there are probably 5 or 10 different types of tees (wooden tees, brush tees, composite tees, hybrid tees, rubber tees, rubber head tees, etc.)

As far as tees that are available to us that we don't carry - there are plenty of individual tees out there that we don't purchase - this is usually because we have something similar or we have found them to be priced inappropriately.

Old habits die hard and I have a feeling that I'll continue to find myself running back to the pro shop from the first tee, but if the day ever comes that I need that special tee for that special someone, at least I'll know where to find it.